Modelling the 1936 storm tide in Wellington Harbour
Search in document libraryThe purpose of this report is to model the 1936 storm tide in Te Whanganui-a-Tara/Wellington Harbour and assess its implications for coastal hazard planning.
Geographic area covered
Te Whanganui-a-Tara/Wellington Harbour, including Queens Wharf, Petone, and Eastbourne.
Report Summary
This report investigates the storm tide event that occurred on 2 February 1936 in Te Whanganui-a-Tara/Wellington Harbour, considered one of the most significant in the region over the past century. Using numerical modelling, the study reconstructs the sea level during the storm, incorporating tidal data, storm surge, and wind effects. The model estimates the storm tide reached approximately 1.33 metres above the Wellington Vertical Datum 1953 (WVD53) at Queens Wharf. This level is higher than any recorded sea level since 1975 but lower than previous anecdotal estimates.
The report provides detailed insights into three key locations around the harbour: Queens Wharf, Petone, and Eastbourne. Queens Wharf served as the central reference point for sea level measurements. Petone experienced slightly higher storm tide levels, estimated at 1.38 metres WVD53, due to its exposure to southerly winds and a larger fetch, which contributed to greater wind setup. Eastbourne also showed elevated levels, reaching approximately 1.36 metres WVD53. These differences highlight the spatial variability of storm tide impacts within the harbour, influenced by local geography and wind conditions.
The modelling also explores future scenarios for the 2090s, accounting for climate change impacts such as sea level rise and increased storm intensity. Under these scenarios, similar storm events could result in storm tides of up to 2.22 metres WVD53. The report includes extreme value analysis to estimate the probability of such events, finding that the 1936 storm tide has an estimated recurrence interval of 170 years.
The study highlights the importance of storm surge as a significant contributor to high sea levels in Te Whanganui-a-Tara/Wellington Harbour, where tidal ranges are relatively small. It also notes that wave effects, which were not included in the modelling, can further exacerbate coastal flooding. The findings are relevant for coastal hazard planning and infrastructure design, especially in light of projected climate change impacts.